The Guardian: 'Per què un referèndum sobre la independència de Catalunya és inevitable'
En un article de l'analista Alberto Nardelli
'Amb el precedent d'Escòcia encara fresc, Madrid no pot amagar aquestes dades sota la carpeta constitucional durant gaire temps.' És una de les conclusions a què arriba Alberto Nardelli, el cap de periodisme de dades del diari britànic The Guardian, havent fet l'anàlisi dels resultats del 9-N. 'Si no hi ha cap solució acordada entre el govern espanyol i el català, un referèndum sobre la independència ja no és una qüestió de si, sinó de quan', afegeix. Nardelli destaca la consolidació del vot per la independència i del total de vots en favor d'un referèndum, malgrat el boicot dels partits unionistes i els atacs de l'estat espanyol.
'El fet que més de dos milions de ciutadans participessin en la votació d'ahir és significatiu per una raó simple. La participació d'ahir és més gran que la suma del suport que van rebre els partits independentistes en les últimes eleccions, i és semblant al suport que van rebre tots els partits en favor de fer un referèndum', observa Nardelli.
Afegeix: 'La dada que importa de la votació d'ahir és la de la participació. Els organitzadors calculen que és d'uns 2,2 milions de vots. Traslladar-ho a percentatges no és pas fàcil, perquè el vot era obert a residents més grans de 16 anys i el procés electoral era diferent de les eleccions convencionals. Utilitzant el cens, la participació seria d'un 35,5%.'
I recorda que al setembre hi va haver --segons les dades que va donar la guàrdia urbana-- 1,8 milions de participants en la V de la Diada. 'I ara més d'un terç de votants ha demanat de poder dir la seva sobre la independència.'
Afegeix: 'La dada que importa de la votació d'ahir és la de la participació. Els organitzadors calculen que és d'uns 2,2 milions de vots. Traslladar-ho a percentatges no és pas fàcil, perquè el vot era obert a residents més grans de 16 anys i el procés electoral era diferent de les eleccions convencionals. Utilitzant el cens, la participació seria d'un 35,5%.'
I recorda que al setembre hi va haver --segons les dades que va donar la guàrdia urbana-- 1,8 milions de participants en la V de la Diada. 'I ara més d'un terç de votants ha demanat de poder dir la seva sobre la independència.'
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deguebRecommend82I lived and worked in Girona (Catalunya) the Catalan nationalists used to annoy me, rambling on about how Madrid steels there money. Well I'll tell you what after living 20 years in the south of Spain I totally in favour with the Catalans bid for independence, On a Spanish national political and media level the Catalans are constantly insulted and despised. I am yet to hear a Spanish politician recognise the huge economical contribution made by Catalunya to the rest of Spain. In Spanish press the Catalan are constantly played down as scroungers, misers who are always begging for money. Some people have even told me that Catalan is a made up language and that Franco gave Catalunya millions to create industry to "keep them quite". Never mind that fact that Catalunya was at the for front of the industrial revolution on the Iberian peninsula long before Franco.They even publish front page, when Catalunya has to borrow cash from central government to fund services, needles to say they don't do that with other autonomous regions. No mention is said that for the last years Catalunya has been propping up the state and getting less then half of the cash back for investment and infrastructures of it's GDP. The say the people in the south are lazy, well they are!!! They talk about equality and solidarity, but it's much easier to get benefits in the south then in Catalunya, or come to say Pais Vasco. Catalans have been very patient, it is foolsih to underestimate the necessary symbiosis between Catalunya and the rest of Spain, but Catalunya can't be on loosing side every time, and that is what has happens. They were promised new statuary rights, for thirty years, they waited, when the time came they where cheated by the constitutional courts by hand picked judges, politicly selected to rule out the new statute.
The Catalans have been patient they have waited there time, they have played buy the rules only to be trick and scammed by Spanish courts and politics. it's time to say bye bye Spain!! Adeu Espanya!!!- VikingWorrierSo racking up the highest debt by an autonomous region and possibly losing a third of GDP if it pulls outr of Spain is a good idea because the southerners are lazy. No, if they wanna go have a referendum and go and lose any wealth they had.
- MarendinsRecommend16So racking up the highest debt by an autonomous regionDue to ever dwindling investment by the central governmentand possibly losing a third of GDP if it pulls outr of SpainSays who?because the southerners are lazySoutherners are not lazy, yet for the most part they are unfair in their treatment of Catalans.No, if they wanna go have a referendum and go and lose any wealth they hadThe issue at hand is that a proper referendum won't even be allowed.
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GCBNRecommend41Well argued. At least this piece does not make too much of the 80% figure. Everyone agrees that this is not real, and it should not have been the headline of the Guardian's main article on the subject.What matters is that 2.25 million people turned out to an unofficial, non-binding consultation, with far fewer polling stations than in elections, and often having to travel many miles to vote in the place of their identity card, as the census was not available and the organisers were determined to avoid fraud. There was also fear over what the police may do.This is an astonishingly high figure in the circumstances, far higher than anticipated. As this piece states, it cannot be brushed under the carpet. We cannot say for sure that there is a majority for independence, although if there was a real vote it seems likely, but we can say that there is an overwhelming desire to have a vote. Polls consistently put this at 75-85%.
CescMaciaRecommend11Well said and you also have to take into account that polling stations are open for another 15 days in certain places because of the Spanish government's incompetence. There is a massive backlog in Catalonia for people who wish to renew their identity card (DNI) and many people couldn't vote yesterday as there applications are still being processed.
Admiralcarreroblanco'There is a massive backlog in Catalonia for people who wish to renew their identity card (DNI) and many people couldn't vote yesterday as there applications are still being processed.'That's a new one. Jajajajaja!
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pconlRecommend28But they will ignore it because that is Rajoy's only method with any problem - just stay schtum and hope it'll go away.The PP created this pressure cooker by appealing the democratically PSOE agreed 'Estatut' to the (highly politicized) Constitutional Court. Now the lid is about to blow.Bye bye Rajoy, bye bye Spain.- pconlNo but I suspect Rajoy will be back in Pontevedra licking his wounds by this time (or shortly after) next year.
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VikingWorrierI can´t see all this turning out any different to what happened in Scotland. When there is a referendum people probably will vote on the side on caution and stay part of Spain.However, the longer Rajoy stops them having a proper election, the more the independence movement wil grow.
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PolB1La Vanguardia is giving the figure of eligible votors as 5.4 million, while El País is giving 6.2 million. Why the difference, and why is The Guardian quoting the lower figure without mentioning the discrepancy?
- Paul20145.4 millon (national voters -over16-) plus 900.000 inmigrants that had The possibility to vote yesterday. In total 6,3
elscollonsdelgosRecommend22El País is pro-Spanish government nowadays. The higher the electorate, the lower the poll turnout as a percentage. La Vanguardia is anti-independence but old-school Catalan bourgeousie. Hence the difference.Take your pick but figures from the Spanish government are as reliable as their denials of endemic party corruption.
- elscollonsdelgosThe Spanish government will have to figure a way round Articles 2 and 149/32 of the Constitution, but basically the ball's in their court.
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franguardRecommend22Unfortunately, as with every other referendum-favouring initiative, the Spanish government and the Spanish "one-nation-fits-all" media will deal with this vote in the usual manner: with a mixture of ridicule and theatrical indignation that anyone dare challenge the Sacred Constitution written by men, many of whom should have been in prison but for fears of a new army coup and the understandable desire to install a democratic society and appease the more violent elements of Franco's dregs.
2.25 million made an extra effort to turn out for this watered-down version of a referendum, travelling further than usual to polling stations organised by 40,000 volunteers. And all day long this has been compared on Spanish TV and the press, unfavourably of course, with the turnout in Catalonia for the general election and the "autonomic regional parliament". And yet it's close to three quarters of the people who turn out for the general election.- SignedUpToWriteThisThis is looking like the first of a three-stage independence process, with democratic checks at each stage. This vote shows that approximately 50% of the Catalan electorate are in favour of independence (note: we don't yet know for sure if the remainder are against independence or not; they should have the opportunity to make their feelings felt). The next logical step is for those political parties in favour of independence or a referendum thereon to form a temporary union for the forthcoming regional elections; a one-off 'Referendum Party' if you will. If - and only if - said party gets elected into government with a clear majority, that would constitute an undeniable democratic mandate for a referendum on independence; only a monster or despot could argue otherwise. The final stage would then be to have a binding referendum, unilaterally if 'permission' (an odd idea in this context) is not granted by the Moncloa.
- AdmiralcarreroblancoWhat figures you working to, tio? 50%? 5.5M (2012 vote) plus 0.9M foreigners not eligible, plus 16-18 year olds. Around 6.5M of which 2M voted for independence. Maybe if your school taught you maths rather than Wilfred the Hairy being tortured by the Guardia Civil in the Valle de los Caidos, this would not be a problem for you. Jajajajajaja!
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PolB1Back on 27th of September after signing the decree for yesterday's vote, Mas did an hour-long interview for TV3. He said that that the vote was obviously not binding, but a way of gauging public opinion on the question of Catalan independence so that his government could take steps accordingly.Yesterday 1.6/1.8 million people voted for independence while 3.6 to 4.7 million people did not.So for 1.6/1.8 million people in Catalonia independence is an important, not to say burning, political issue, while for roughly 4 million it isn't.Where's he planning to take this? There now doesn't seem to be any mandate for spending government resources on pushing for independence, or even for another vote.
- PolB1not having a good day herethat should read "while for roughly 2 to 3 million it isn't". Not as impressive, I know, but the point still stands.
- elscollonsdelgosThis article factors out the intransigence of the Spanish government.Still, they might only have a year left.
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Gabino CarballoCould we have some common sense please?The Goverment did not declare the "referendum" "illegal". They asked the Constitutional Court to determine if the Catalan Goverment is breaching any constitutional principles. The Constitutional Court has "suspended" the so called "referendum" until it can rule on the subject.Under Spanish Constitution, national sovereingty matters are reserved to central goverment. Spain has no law or constitutional arrangements regarding secession from the country.A number of polls have been carried out in Catalonia regarding independence in recen years, but all of them have been run by political organisations, not by the Catalan Goverment.The Catalan Goverment has never intended to call for a referedum. Catalan Law clearly states that they only wish to carry out non-binding "opinion polls", with a view to promote a petition to change the Spanish Constitution, with the agreement of central goverment, of course.The rest is just posturing and propaganda.Yesterday "volunteer" poll resembles the one carried out in Barcelona in 2011. The results are better for independence than before, but generally show that support for independence remains within the 30% backet. More or less the same result as the last Regional elections.Yesterday poll was about who rules Catalonia in coming years, CiU vs Esquerra. Non-nationalists largely stayed away from the affair,The census was completely open, and the regional law regulating these "opinion polls" is very weak on controls and verification (one of the reasons for the appeal to the Constitutional Court) so nobody really knows who voted, but fair estiamtions point to a third of official voting census, or thereaboutsIn any event, if one year of heavy institutional publicity by all means possible from the Catalan Goverment, plus Central Goverment assistance, result in only a third of the official voting census turning up, it is possible to see a fairly stable ceiling for independence.As expected both by goverments in Madrid and Barcelona, the main result will be Spanish nationalism polarisation in Catalonia. Expect Pro-Spanish parties to rise at next elections and the left to be virtually wiped out.Central government is already pumping millions in Catalan elite's private concerns in return for rendered services.Great result for Madrid, altogether.
shaunyThe Constitutional Court has "suspended" the so called "referendum" until it can rule on the subject.
They did declare it illegal. Both of them. Unanimouslyso nobody really knows who votedNational IDs were required and even the most radical independentistes said that there was no double-voting etc.A number of polls have been carried out in Catalonia regarding independence in recen years, but all of them have been run by political organisations, not by the Catalan Goverment.
Who do you think was behind the 'political organisations'?The Catalan Goverment has never intended to call for a referedum.Expect Pro-Spanish parties to rise at next elections and the left to be virtually wiped out.LOL! Really? In the recent Euro elections, four of the top five parties were left-wing. And with `Podemos' on the rise (very popular in CAT as they are in favour of organising a binding referendum.The sum total of your knowledge on this subject is zero.
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Antonio BZA referendum vote where minors, foreigners without restrictions, could not control whether someone voted twice, left no vote Catalan taking years off, HAS NO CREDIBILITY. They have made to order for the result to be desired.Of all the 6,200,000 eligible voters, only 1,800,000 people voted for independence ... THAT IS A SUCCESS?
tom1Recommend18There were systems in place to prevent dual votes. Everyone who voted had to show their ID: their data was immediately entered into a database t prevent them going and voting elsewhere.And there were restrictions on which foreign residents could vote.You don't know what you're talking about, do you?
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geekyoneRecommend13The PP were elected on a bunch of lies. They said they had the solution to the crisis without touching healthcare, benefits, pensions and services. They slashed everything within six months of being elected. Sincé then they have continued Franco's agenda, they have tried to prohibit all native languages except Spanish in schools, they overturned the Catalan statute agreed by the previous government, they have tried to prohibit abortions, they had judge Garçon imprisoned for trying to discover what happened to the "disappeared" during Franco's rule, they are increasingly provoking the UK into an act of aggression over Gibraltar and they are continually trying to close down non-Spanish speaking televisión channels. And let's not mention the corruption, even the President of Spain is implicated yet refuses to stand down making himself and Spain a laughing stock around the world. All because of blatant lies. If they hadn't lied their way into power, there would have been no referéndum.
- BolivarianHeroCan't wait for the Spanish people to put the PPerros to sleep one and for all.Yes we can! Si, pokemon!
lambretinhaYou state there's a discrepancy in the number of eligible voters of a possible, future independence referendum. 5.4M vs 6.3M. That's 1 out of seven people who could vote yesterday, but not in that future referendum. Somehow, you swept them under the carpet with a "turnout definitions aside" Nice one. Only that 14% voting one way or another is huge. But hey...Then there's the issue of putting attendance to a demonstration in the same category as that of a vote, no matter how informal. Ignoring the obvious fact that to be present somewhere doesn't imply you agree with everything that's been said there, or conversely, that the question put forward in a ballot has consequences over the nature of the vote, there are two huge differences:a) You can count yesterday votes. You may not trust those doing the counting, you may even take issue with the fact that there's not an actual census, but it is, at least, feasible. But you can't count actual attendance to a demonstration as massive as that was. It might have been half a million, or one million, one million and a half. You know what? I have no idea. Neither do you, or anybody else. It's just a guess.
b) Those who attended that demonstration are not taken out of the 6.3M number used above. Or out of that 5.4M number. They are a section of the total of people living in Catalonia. Do you know how many kids were there? Neither do I. But there were a lot. By ignoring this, you're comparing two numbers that are, quite simply, not comparable.Datablog: Facts are sacred
Numbers? not so much, it seems.-
- AdmiralcarreroblancoBBC not much better. I thought I was reading El Alcazar such is the crap presenting of the facts.
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Ryan BrightonThis papers warm support of Catalan self-determinism seems rather a stark contrast to it's shrieking hysterics over a UK referendum, or any kind of English government beyond regionalism.- huwbaccabut a yes vote in the referendum would have been an extension of regionalism... and I remember the guardian having a fairly large amount of coverage on both sides of the argument.
- JabulonJust keep in mind the percentage of voters and the reliability -with no controls- of the separatist show.Up to you the analysis.
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mmarioIn Catalonia is well known that there is a 'good friend' (or a paid one) of Mas inside The Guardian, so this paper is even not mentioned in soft nationalist papers like La Vanguardia when quoting news about Catalan independence from outside, because they are seen biased even by soft nationalists here.A big contrast with fierce anti-Scottish nationalism.
- Pippa123I actually think that this Guardian piece is spot on. A referendum is the only logical course of action following yesterday's vote. The present situation is unworkable.
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- shaunyLos catalanes quieren separarse de Madrid, los escoceses de londres. No es lo mismo ni en pintura.Los escoceses van de comando debajo del kilt. ¿No lo sabías?
CeltibericoWith the Scottish precedent still fresh, these are numbers that Madrid will not be able sweep under the constitutional carpet for much longer.Oh, I dunno about that - the capacity of Spanish State bureaucrats to slow things down is legendary, to the degree where the Spanish joke "If death came from Madrid, we would all be immortal."- JAN FAIREYI went to vote yesterday, they were lots of volunteers running the polling station and they were all very nice people. They even supplied coffee and biscuits... one thing i did find odd was a the lack of privacy... no booth.. no where to make your mark in private... just a table with a smiling nationalist, a cup of coffee and a pen!
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Mario Sánchez PozueloAlthough from Spanish positions they want to minimize the result of the ballot held, in Catalonia absolute majority in most referendums is reached around 1,300,000 votes. This result for the Yes-Yes has been around 1,900,000. Far more than what is needed.
- AdmiralcarreroblancoHow's 1.3M an absolute majority of 5.4M (which doesn't include foreign residents and 16-18 year olds). Who's making up these ridiculous figures?
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